A new poll published on July 31st, 2022 by 338Canada.com places the Conservative Party of Canada within the margin of a majority government with a maximum of 173 of the 170 required for a majority. The seat projection poll also places the current Liberal government outside the realm of a majority, A feat they have been unable to replicate since 2015.
All this is fine and good, but an important fact to remember is that there is currently no election planned until 2025. Given the confidence and supply agreement between the Liberals and NDP, this may not change. Conservative supporters, of course, are elated by these projections, but most neglect to realize that these numbers must, at minimum, be maintained for 3 years. Unless something in the political landscape changes drastically before then.
No one in Canada should count on that happening, despite rumors of a fall election. There simply is no need for Trudeau to call one. With the support of the NDP, there is safety for him in keeping the status quo. Calling an election now, or in the near future is the only way Trudeau creates any risk of losing power. In essence, with the NDP support, he can continue to do whatever he wants, and there is little anyone can do about it.
The NDP could force an election with a non confidence vote, but why would they? Currently, the NDP is in a position to hold the Trudeau Liberals hostage to their demands. In essence, Jagmeet Singh could force any policy he sees fit on Trudeau by threatening them with the cancellation of that agreement. He simply has no advantage in forcing an election.
Despite polls showing the Conservative being more popular at the moment, it could be a very long time before Canada sees any change in the political landscape.