The riding of Burnaby South was created very recently, and has always been held by the NDP. More notably, it is the riding currently represented by NDP leader Jagmeet Singh. In fact, the only other person elected to that riding was Kennedy Stuart, who resigned in 2018 in order to run for mayor of Vancouver.
Singh was elected to the riding in a 2019 by election, which saw Conservatives lose in third place with only about 23% of the vote to Singh’s 39%. The times appear to be changing in a big way though.
A recent vote projection for the riding, published by 338Canada, puts the NDP and Conservatives much closer in a first vs second place race. While officially, the riding is still set to hold as NDP, a quick look at the error margins sets a different tone. 338Canada puts the NDP in the lead by 7%, but with a possible error of 7%. In comparison, the Conservatives currently have 30%, with an error margin of 6%. On top of that, NDP and Liberal voter intent is on the decline, while Conservative intentions are on the rise. This means that Jagmeet Singh could possibly lose his riding to whomever the Conservatives decide to run there. A heavy hitter candidate could change the political landscape in Burnaby South to the right for the first time.
Given the unprecedented rise in Conservative support, Burnaby South could soon be a riding to watch.